Probability is something people deal with regularly, including gambling, healthcare, and entertainment, among others. It is a form of applied mathematics that revolves around what may or may not happen. Generally speaking, probability is a pretty interesting phenomenon that has fascinated humans for centuries. In the same breath, here are some mind-blowing facts about probability you probably didn’t know.
1. The Theory of Probability Was Invented to Settle a Gambling Dispute
In 1654, Chevalier de Mere posed a gambling problem to Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal. While the two attempted to resolve this issue, they formulated the probability theory. Ever since, the two have been accredited as the inventors of this phenomenon.
2. The Probability of Winning Solitaire was Discovered in 2019
The game of Solitaire can be traced back to the 17th century. However, it took until 2019 for theoreticians to determine the probability of winning this game. This was made possible using an advanced computer program. Previously, the inability to calculate the probability of winning this game was referred to as an embarrassment of applied mathematics.
3. There’s a 99.9% Probability of 2 People in a Group of 70 Sharing the Same Birthday
Over time, statisticians have concluded that in a group of 70 people, there’s a 99.9% probability that two people share a similar birthday. This has been labelled as the Birthday Paradox. If that number is reduced to 23 people, there is a 50% probability that two people will share a birthday.
4. There is a Nazi Analogy on Probability Associated with Online Discussions
The Godwin’s Law states that the longer an online discussion grows, the higher the probability that someone will be compared to Hitler or a Nazi. This law was established by Mike Godwin.
5. The Probability of a Coin Flip is Not 50-50
If logic is followed, the probability of a coin flap should be 50-50; it should either land on heads or tails. However, this is not true. Coins are not always perfectly balanced. Some may have defects and others may have experienced wear and tear.
Also, coin flips are susceptible to errors. The flipper may try to dictate the outcome manually. Factors such as wind also rubbish the 50-50 probability. Some scientists claim that a coin flip has a probability of 51-49. Whether they are right or not, the bottom line is that it’s not 50-50.
6. A Michigan Couple Used Probability to Win the Lottery
In 2003, Jerry and Marge Selbee utilized probability to win $26 million from different state lottery games. After running into a flyer about a lottery game in his store, Jerry did some mental calculations using probability that helped him win a few thousand dollars the first time. He was so good that he founded G.S. Investments, which worked strictly on acing state lotteries.
7. Erwin Schrodinger disliked Probability
Erwin Schrodinger, the famous physicist behind the Cat Theory, disliked probability. On one account, he was documented, claiming how probability has made everything straightforward while concealing true problems. While applying probability to quantum mechanics, he said that he didn’t want anything to do with it.
8. Allied Forces Used Probability to Determine How Many Tanks Germany Was Making
Tanks manufactured by Germany in World War II had a serial number. Allied forces used the serial numbers of captured or damaged German tanks to determine how many were being manufactured. This concept was also used to calculate their weaponry and ammunition. As it turned out, this probability was inaccurate and overestimated the number of tanks produced each month.
9. The Weather Channel Admitted to Exaggerating the Probability of Rain
There is a concept known as wet bias, which occurs when the weather channel exaggerates the probability of low precipitation. If the precipitation is expected at 5%, the Weather Channel will report as 20%. This, however, is not used in high precipitation rates of more than 60%.
10. Babylonians Used Probability to Predict Eclipses 4,000 Years Ago
Proof of how long probability has been a part of humankind dates back to 4,000 years ago when Babylonian astronomers used it to predict eclipses. According to Historians, they were right only 55% of the time. That means there were significant near misses.
11. The Widowhood Effect Highlights the Increased Probability of Dying After a Spouse’s Death
According to the Widowhood Effect, older adults have a higher probability of dying shortly after the death of their spouses. Scientists have established that this may be caused by loneliness.
12. The Probability of Two Siblings Being the Same Gender is Not 50-50
Most people assume the probability of two kids from the same family being the same gender is 50-50. That is, it can either be a boy or a girl. On the contrary, it is more complex than it appears on the surface. A two-child household can have four combinations: girl-girl, boy-boy, boy-girl, and girl-boy. Assuming the first child is a boy, the probability of having two kids of the same gender is 33% and not 50%.
13. The Probability of Dying on Your Birthday is High
Different studies have shown that the rates of death are significantly higher on people’s birthdays. One study published in The Guardian gave a probability of 6.7%, and another posted on NBC News had a probability rate of 14%.
14. The Probability of Being Gay is Higher for People with More Older Brothers
Research shows that having an older brother increases the chance of being gay by 2.6%. If there are two older brothers, the probability goes to 3.5%. People with at least five older brothers have an 8% probability of being gay. This concept has been documented in several countries, including the United States, Canada, Brazil and Turkey.